The key to successful Fantasy Football draft is making a profit with as many picks as you possibly can. Any given player can provide value in one way or another. However, how much you pay to have that player on your team will determine how truly valuable they are to you. Having a great RB2 on your team doesn’t mean anything if you spent a first or second round pick to acquire him.
There is not much that owners can do to avoid injury related busts. If someone suffers a freak injury that ends his season, it’s hardly the fault of the owner that drafted him. On the other hand, there are players who go into draft season with inflated price tags. These players won’t necessarily be busts, but they will need a lot to go right in 2017 to return the value that owners are paying for them. This article will discuss five players overrated in 2017 drafts.
5 Overrated 2017 Fantasy Football Players
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Anyone who’s played Fantasy Football over the last few years knows that Luck is one of the most consistent quarterbacks available. The Colts offensive strategy puts the ball in his hands and relies on Luck to throw it a ton. In his three fully healthy seasons, Luck ranked in the top five in pass attempts, leading the league with 736 attempts in 2014. That’s a lot of literal and metaphorical stress on the shoulders of someone who plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Colts did little to address the holes in their offensive line. The plan for 2017 is to allow their young line to mesh and improve. I have no doubt that the O-line will prove as a unit, but questionable talents on the right side leave doubt about how much time Luck will have to operate.
Last season, Luck absorbed 41 sacks, tied for the highest total in his five-year career. He is tough as nails and has played through several injuries. Luck had major shoulder surgery in the off-season to repair an injury that he has been dealing with since 2015. While the surgery went well, his slow progress in rehab has his Week 1 status in doubt. His “injury prone” tag isn’t perhaps something he deserves, but you can’t ignore Luck’s amount of punishment in such a relatively short career.
By the numbers, Luck will provide plenty of Fantasy points from the QB position. If he plays a full season, you’re looking at near 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns as a floor. If he plays a full season, Luck will once again be a locked and loaded QB1. My concern with Luck is the lingering shoulder injury and his price. A FantasyPros ADP of 53 makes Luck the fourth QB off the board. In the same area, Russell Wilson is a much safer investment. If you’re willing to wait a couple rounds, you can grab Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins. If you’re willing to wait a couple more rounds, Philip Rivers is draftable at QB14.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
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There are two schools of thought when it comes to rookie running backs. Some owners tend to stay away from rookies due to their inflated price tags. Some owners love to draft rookies in hopes of hitting on the next big Fantasy goldmine. McCaffrey is this season’s most polarizing rookie, as his versatile skill set has his ADP sitting at around 31st overall, and the 14th RB off the board.
McCaffrey is an undeniable talent; his receiving skills add a dimension to the Panthers’ offense that wasn’t there last season. Despite his potential, there are a lot of factors working against him this season. First, despite the injury history, Jonathan Stewart is still there. By all accounts, Stewart will maintain his role held over the last few years. The Panthers extended him through the 2018 season and clearly plan to use him in some capacity for the next two seasons. The coaching staff said definitively, that Stewart’s role would not change.
Stewart will still receive the bulk of the carries, and will be the RB of choice at the goal line when Cam Newton doesn’t run it in himself. At his current ADP, owners are assuming that McCaffrey will take over the every down duty for the Panthers. If he doesn’t receive the majority of the carries, his price will not be worth the return.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington Redskins
Last season, Pryor had his coming out party. After several injuries to the receiving corps, Pryor became the de-facto number one receiver for the Browns. His athleticism and great hands helped him achieve his first season with 1,000 yards receiving. Pryor was a consistent option last season; drawing less than five targets in just two games last season.
On the surface, moving to Washington should be a boost to his value, upgrading from Cody Kessler to Kirk Cousins. However, the move to a better offense might be his Fantasy downfall. The quality of his targets will improve but his volume should sharply fall. Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder are established receivers that will receive a large percentage of targets. Josh Doctson will also have a chance to establish himself after missing most of last season due to injury.
Pryor has an ADP of 40.7, making him the 19th WR off the board. At that price, he would need to exceed the 1,000 yards and four touchdowns he scored last season. Reed is the Redskins’ main red-zone target, and they have two running backs that are skilled close to the end zone. With the Browns, Pryor was the unquestioned top receiving option for a team that was constantly playing from behind. I have my doubts that he can build on his performance in a more crowded offense.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
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Hill was electric in his rookie season, finishing as WR15 in standard leagues (WR25 in PPR). In the usually safe Kansas City offense, Hill was a game changing playmaker. He added a missing dimension to Andy Reid‘s offense that had been missing during his tenure in KC. Playing a full 16 games, Hill finished the season with 860 total yards and 12 total touchdowns.
As enticing as Hill’s upside is, I am expecting a pretty large regression in his performance this season. Last season, Hill was not the No. 1 receiver on the team. However, he took advantage of the limited touches he had. Playing on just 41 percent of snaps, Hill scored a touchdown once every 9.4 offensive touches. No other receiver scored a touchdown more than once every 10.1 touches. Of course, his snap percentage will increase as the Chiefs second best receiving threat. As part of that deal, Hill will see increased coverage as the No. 1 wide receiver for KC.
A significant portion of his touchdowns came on big plays. Two rushing touchdowns of 68 yards or more and three special teams touchdowns might be difficult to reproduce. As the Chiefs try to protect their young stud, they might reduce his return duties this upcoming season. With an ADP of 52, owners are banking on Hill to maintain his big play ability against heavier coverage. As high as his ceiling is, Hill comes with a lot of downside as well.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders
I understand the excitement for the return of Beast Mode. For years, he was one of the most intimidating runners in the league. Of course, everyone will fondly remember the Beast-Quake through New Orleans. Prior to his injury plagued 2015 season, Lynch recorded four straight seasons of 1200 or more rushing yards. Owners seem to have the nostalgia glasses on, as Lynch is the 12th RB off the board. This ADP puts him close to the turn between the third and fourth rounds.
What people seem to be forgetting, is that Lynch has not played a full season in nearly two years. Extended time off is tough for any NFL player to come back from. It will be especially tough for a 31-year-old running back coming out of retirement. Unfortunately for Lynch, running backs on the wrong side of 30 don’t have history on their side. Granted, he will be running behind one of the best o-lines in the league, but the last time we saw Lynch, he averaged just 3.8 YPC in seven games.
He saw heavy use in Seattle and was the unquestioned horse in the backfield. In Oakland, Lynch will receive the bulk of the carries but likely won’t receive the same volume he did in Seattle. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington have proven that they are more than capable of producing in a limited role. Early in draft season, owners seem to be looking at Lynch through rose-coloured glasses. Not the same situation, but Adrian Peterson‘s sharp decline should serve as a warning as to what can happen to aging star running backs.
|2017 Fantasy Football Position Previews|
|Quarterbacks||Running Backs||Wide Receivers||Tight Ends|
For more F6P preseason coverage please visit our 2017 Draft Kit section.
Source: NFL News